AIM: To investigate the prognostic factors of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization treated with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)drugs and construct predictive model.

METHODS:A total of 57 patients(57 eyes)with idiopathic choroidal neovascularization who received the treatment of anti-VEGF in our hospital from January 2020 to June 2023 were retrospectively included and grouped according to regression or recurrence of the disease. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed on the influencing factor of regression or recurrence of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization lesions treated with anti-VEGF drugs. Clinical prediction model was constructed for the regression of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization lesions treated with anti-VEGF drugs.

RESULTS:After treatment, the lesions disappeared in 17 eyes and recurred in 13 eyes, with incidence rates of 30% and 23%, respectively. The results of univariate analysis showed that the course of disease, baseline best corrected visual acuity, and baseline macular fovea retinal thickness may all be related to the regression or recurrence of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization lesions treated with anti-VEGF drugs(all P<0.05). Logistic multivariate analysis showed that the course of the disease, baseline best corrected visual acuity level, and baseline macular fovea retinal thickness may all be related to the regression of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization treated with anti-VEGF drugs(all P<0.05), while those factors were not related to the recurrence of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization treated with anti-VEGF drugs(all P>0.05). The influencing factors of the regression model and the P-value prediction probability were used to predict the regression of idiopathic choroidal neovascular lesions treated with anti-VEGF drugs, and the Youden index was 83.00%, 75.74%, 45.47% and 85.00%, respectively.

CONCLUSION:The regression of idiopathic choroidal neovascularization treated with anti-VEGF drugs was closely related to the course of disease, baseline best corrected visual acuity level and baseline macular foveal retinal thickness, while the risk of recurrence has not been determined by corresponding influencing factors. The data model constructed by the above three factors has shown good efficiency in predicting the regression of patients with idiopathic choroidal neovascularization lesions treated with anti-VEGF drugs.